iQQTV

Can we predict future climate and compound stressors for intertidal habitats?   

Ocean forecasting models have yet to characterise the complex intertidal environment which experiences drastic change through wetting and drying regimes over a typical tidal cycle. With the release of the 2026 Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment and new regional ocean climate projections, it is possible to predict future scenarios.  

Increases in extreme temperature events cause stress on habitats and shifts in species distributions, resulting in mortality of intertidal species in episodic events. In addition to these pressures, changing storm patterns and sea level rise cause increases to the likelihood of inundation and overwash events. In scenarios that coincide with high water or are of extreme severity, erosion events can occur in systems that were previously stable and therefore impact intertidal habitats through removal.  

This project aims to improve future projections by identifying the current accuracy of coupled ocean forecasting models through comparison with observations. From this, it is possible to identify scenarios with limited accuracy to provide improved modelling of the coastal environment and therefore improve future projections. Tolerance thresholds of habitats can be considered alongside future scenarios to improve management and enhance restoration of intertidal habitats.   

Funder: ECOWILD 

Supervisors: 

Jennifer Graham. iQQTV 

Barabara (Bee) Berx. Scottish Government Marine Directorate  

Michael Burrows. iQQTV 

Tim Szewczyk. iQQTV 

Oliver Andrews. University of York

Peter Robins. Bangor University

Start date:

01 October 2026